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位置:博客 > 墨菲 > 徐洪才:在通货紧缩时代,如何突出重围|附《经济学人》中《处在十字路口:全球领导人需要共同努力应对挑战》原文

徐洪才:在通货紧缩时代,如何突出重围|附《经济学人》中《处在十字路口:全球领导人需要共同努力应对挑战》原文

近年来,美联储加息、缩表,美国消费市场萎缩,金融去杠杆,各国政府加大了对经济活动的干预,公共部门债务不降反增,大宗商品价格低迷,以及贸易保护主义盛行,这一切都将致使全球经济在未来10年放缓增长的步伐。华尔街著名经济预测专家A. 加里·希林博士认为CPI (消费者物价指数)通胀通常不受欢迎,而通缩则不同。通缩有两种类型:由过剩供给引起的良性通缩和因需求匮乏而出现的恶性通缩。良性通缩的发生是因为新技术的应用和生产率的提高,令供给增加超出了需求所能消化的程度。其言下之意,就是各国必须加大结构性改革和技术创新力度,以促进经济的可持续发展。

 

岁月无情。回望2018年,虽然未发生全球性金融危机,似乎也打破了“10年一次危机”的魔咒, 但是世界各地的局部性险情却是此起彼伏,令人胆战心惊。在美联储加息、美元升值和全球贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,新兴经济体的货币大幅度贬值,股票市场剧烈震荡,投资者蒙受了巨大损失。2018年前三季度,美国股市延续了牛市行情,但是进入第四季度,三大股指急剧跳水,道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌11.8%、14.0%和17.5%。在2018年年底苹果公司股价突然下跌的过程中,“股神”巴菲特因重仓持苹果股票而受到重创。相比之下,2018 年的中国股市更是惨不忍睹,全年上证综指、创业板指数、中小板指数分别下跌24.6%、28.6%和37.7%;上市公司市值缩水13万亿元,当年全国新增GDP (国内生产总值) 为8万亿元,不足以弥补投资者的亏损。

 

世事难料。2018年年初,IMF (国际货币基金组织) 曾乐观地预计世界经济复苏势头良好,增速可达3.9%;但是到了秋天,IMF又下调预期,世界经济增长率可能只有3.8%。上半年,美国经济一枝独秀,令特朗普总统兴高采烈,二季度美国经济增长折年率高达4.1%,失业率创下历史新低;但是到了年底,特朗普政府关门,尤其是长达9年的大牛市结束了。这令心直口快的特朗普恼羞成怒, 对美联储主席鲍威尔破口大骂。其实,此时鲍威尔对加息也很纠结。2018年年初,国际油价曾上冲至70多美元/桶,年底又跌回到接近50美元/桶。这让靠预测吃饭的经济学家们经常被打脸,而希林博士的预测似乎再次得到验证。

 

2019年新年伊始,全球弥漫着一种悲观的气氛。世界经济未来会不会进入希林博士所预言的长期缓慢增长和通缩时代?2018年11月8日,英国《经济学人》发表了我的署名文章《处在十字路口:全球领导人需要共同努力应对挑战》。几天后, 美国财政部前部长鲍尔森在新加坡演讲,中国国家主席习近平也于12月在G20阿根廷峰会上发表重要讲话,他们都提到世界处在十字路口这一说法。毫无疑问,从现在到未来几年,全球经济治理正在酝酿一场深刻的变革,主要经济体的宏观政策充满不确定性,世界经济也将总体缓慢下行,美国、欧洲、日本等发达经济体如此,新兴经济体和发展中国家大体也是如此。当然凡事都有例外,2019年印度可能保持7%以上的经济增长,但可能不会持续。中国经济增长将缓慢回落,但对世界经济新增GDP的贡献仍会保持在30%左右。

 

2018年中央经济工作会议对当前经济形势做了科学分析,认为总体平稳,但稳中有变,变中有忧。根据我的理解,所谓总体平稳:

一是经济增长相对稳定,主要宏观经济指标在合理区间,对于到2020年全面建成小康社会仍有信心。

 

二是物价稳定。2018年CPI增长2.1% ,但12月份PPI (生产价格指数)回落到同比增长0.9%,出现了轻微的通缩苗头。

 

三是就业形势不错。

 

四是国际收支平衡改善,经常账户出现微小逆差,资本和金融账户保持净流入。

 

所谓稳中有变,变中有忧:

一是外部环境变化,即贸易保护主义抬头,美国在技术上对中国实施封锁,未来几年世界经济、贸易和投资增长都将放缓。

 

二是内部条件变化,即用工成本上升,环保标准提高,投资消费增长乏力,技术进步缓慢,老龄化社会渐行渐近。

 

面对全球经济下行压力加大、宏观政策不确定性增加和潜在金融风险上升等挑战,国家、企业和个人都要保持战略定力,积极做出谋划。对国家而言, 2019年是中国改革开放再出发的元年, 中央经济工作会议对全年工作做了部署,即坚持稳中求进的工作总基调,坚持新发展理念,按照 “巩固、增强、提升、畅通”八字方针,深化供给侧结构性改革、推动经济高质量发展,扎实做好稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险各项工作,做好 “稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期”工作。与此同时,要加强财政政策、货币政策、结构性政策和社会政策的协调,形成政策合力。

 

对企业来讲,要看到公平竞争的营商环境正在形成,要把握新一轮深化改革、扩大开放和鼓励民营企业和小微企业发展的机遇,顺应国家政策导向,谋定后动,苦练内功,加快转型和形成核心竞争力。

 

个人投资者也要及时总结经验和教训。2018年,中国守住了不发生系统性金融风险的底线,但是企业债券违约、P2P平台崩盘和股市剧烈震荡等局部性金融风险频频暴露,让人不堪回首、心有余悸。常言道:宁可明明白白赔钱,也不要稀里糊涂挣钱。因此,个人投资者都迫切需要进一步丰富经济金融知识,多读几本好书。

《去杠杆化时代》

比如这本《去杠杆化时代》就是大家不错的选择。这是华尔街著名经济预测专家A. 加里·希林 (A. Gary Shilling) 博士同名著作的中文版。

 

希林博士毕业于斯坦福大学。他因精准预测而闻名,两次被《机构投资者》(Institutional Investor) 杂志评为华尔街最佳经济学家。1969年春季,他是少有的几个预见到经济衰退将在该年年末来临的人之一。其后, 他还预测到了20世纪70年代初的存货泡沫、1973—1975年的经济衰退、20世纪80年代中期的工资 - 价格螺旋通胀、20世纪80年代末的日本经济泡沫、20世纪90 年代末的网络股泡沫和21世纪初的房地产泡沫。2010年,中国经济在“四万亿”刺激计划作用下高歌猛进,此时他大胆放言:中国经济将不可避免地转向长期中低速增长。

 

——本文为中国国际经济交流中心副总经济师徐洪才老师为《去杠杆化时代》作的序言,文章与标题略有更改。 

 

 

附:《处在十字路口:全球领导人需要共同努力应对挑战》英文原文

 

At a Crossroads

Global Leaders Need to Work Together to Meet Challenges

The Economist, on November 10th 2018

By Xu Hongcai

 

The world economy has enjoyed a cyclical recovery in recent years, and consequently, insufficient growth drivers and imbalanced development followed. At the same time, there is mounting populism, protectionism and unilateralism. Regional hotspots continue to be in turmoil, terrorism is rampant, while globalization has been hampered and the multilateral trade system threatened, especially in peace, development and global governance. The world is at a crossroads, witnessing profound changes.

 

Common challenges

 

The U.S. economy is performing well, but it is unsustainable. Its momentum of growth is bound to slow down by next year. Facing different economic situations, European countries and Japan have adopted differentiated policies. As the U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to hike interest rates, the volatility of global capital flow has been intensified, while the currencies of some emerging economies have depreciated sharply. The New York Stock Exchange has fallen into a correction and other stock markets have plunged as a result. The fear haunting people is whether there is a new round of international financial crisis around the corner.

 

With the development of globalization, common challenges, together with the pursuit of common prosperity, have encouraged people from all countries to jointly build a community with a shared future. As Chinese President Xi Jinping said, humankind has reached an age of great progress, great transformation and profound changes from a historical perspective. Still in terms of reality, we find ourselves in a world fraught with challenges.

 

During the 2018 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Meeting, to be held in Papua New Guinea in November, leaders need to confront the reality that global growth requires new drivers, development needs to be more inclusive and balanced, and the gap between the rich and the poor needs to be narrowed. Deficits in peace, development and governance pose a daunting challenge.

 

In addition, world economic growth slowed in the first three quarters of the year, and some emerging economies were trouble-ridden. The international financial market experienced fluctuations and a negative impact from the U.S. dollar appreciation and China-U.S. trade frictions, bringing more uncertainties to global governance.

 

Faced with these challenges, the international community is waiting for the leaders of all countries to abandon prejudice and egoism. These major countries must undertake their responsibilities and make contributions to coping with challenges. This is also the reason why the 2018 APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting is themed “Harnessing Inclusive Opportunities, Embracing the Digital Future.”

 

The Asia-Pacific, the most vigorous region in the world economy, possesses an important strategic status. During the meeting, can leaders turn challenges into opportunities in response to the changing world situation? That will greatly influence, and even determine, the future political and economic structure of the world.

 

Chinese insight

 

In recent years, as a major developing country, China has participated on the international stage and proposed solutions to the common problems facing the world.

 

In the field of peace, China calls for building a community with a shared future for mankind and jointly pursuing the Belt and Road Initiative. It is proposing that countries should foster partnerships based on dialogue, non-confrontation and non-alliance. Major countries should respect each other’s core interests and main concerns, keep their differences under control, and build a new model of relations featuring non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.

 

Big countries should treat smaller ones as equals instead of imposing their will on the latter. No country should open a Pandora’s Box by willfully waging wars or undermining the international rule of law. Nuclear weapons should be prohibited and destroyed over time to make the world free of them. Guided by the principles of peace, sovereignty, inclusiveness and shared governance, the world should turn the deep seas, the polar regions, outer space and the Internet into new frontiers for cooperation rather than a wrestling ground.

 

In the field of development, China is implementing the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, integrating the Sustainable Development Goals into its 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development during 2016-20. It is also pursuing innovative, coordinated, green, open and inclusive development. China will accelerate the construction of a modern economic system to achieve high quality, high efficiency, and inclusive and sustainable development.

 

China is taking an initiative to participate in the reform of global governance and fulfill its international commitments. At the 2016 G20 Summit in Hangzhou, China, for the first time, systematically expounded its basic concepts of global governance, which is equality-based, open, cooperation-driven and sharing. It promoted the G20’s transformation from a crisis response mechanism to a long-term cooperation mechanism for economic governance. During the Ninth BRICS Summit in Xiamen in 2017, China expanded its BRICS Plus model for dialogue and cooperation, which has injected new vitality into BRICS cooperation.

 

China also proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, led the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and aimed to provide new public goods to the international community. Based on the principle of consultation, contribution and shared benefits, China has upgraded cooperation models with both developed and developing countries and promoted building a community with a shared future to guide the global governance system, with the UN as its core, to develop in a more just and rational direction.

 

Regarding the heated debate on World Trade Organization (WTO) reform, China hopes that the reform will address the concerns and reflect the needs of most members. The primary purpose of the WTO should not be changed and its fundamental principle not challenged through gradual reform. At the same time, the reform should strengthen the authoritativeness and leadership of the WTO and consolidate the basic functions and role of the free trade principle and the multilateral trading system to better promote global free trade and economic globalization. The reform should not deviate from the overall direction of trade liberalization and is not meant to reinvent the wheel.

 

Greater openness

 

As the world’s second largest economy, China’s contribution to global economic growth has averaged over 30 percent annually. Its opening up will continue to have positive impact on the global multilateral trading system and global governance.

 

In the first half of the year, the Chinese Government completed the revision of the negative list on foreign investment. It is also committed to creating a modern market system featuring sound rules, openness, orderly competition, high efficiency, and a stable, fair, transparent and predictable business environment.

 

In the first three quarters of the year, it can be concluded from the indicators of growth, employment, inflation and balance of payments, that China’s national economy maintained a generally steady and sound performance with a good momentum. In an optimized economic structure, new growth drivers emerged along with transformed conventional growth drivers, improved quality and returns. Solid progress was made in high-quality development. The smooth operation of China’s economy has made an important contribution to the world as a whole.

 

Although there are fluctuations in the financial market, the overall situation is controllable and financial stability has been maintained. There are many favorable factors for domestic economic growth. For example, China’s economy has become increasingly resilient, the domestic market has great potential, and there are many selectable policies. Next, China will deepen reforms and further opening up, which will continue to benefit its people and the world at large.

 

As a member of APEC, China’s stable growth has injected new impetus into regional cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. China is willing to strengthen bilateral and multilateral cooperation in many fields. It has assumed responsibility for promoting economic development in East Asia, leading regional integration and maintaining regional peace and stability.

 

China is willing to work with East Asian countries to jointly oppose trade protectionism and accelerate the negotiation process on the China- Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, creating favorable conditions for the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific. As for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, China will adopt a positive attitude as long as it conforms to the WTO’s principle of openness, inclusivity and transparency, and is conducive to promoting economic globalization and regional economic integration.

 

Looking to the future, China will continue to act as a responsible major country and to work with all countries in the world to maintain world peace, stability and common prosperity by keeping its own economy stable. China will also make more efforts to promote world economic integration and contribute to an open world economy.

 

(The author is deputy chief economist with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges)

 

-End-

 



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